What is Causal Mapping?

Causal maps are a visual representation of all the key elements and flows that make up a system and the direct causal links that connect them. It is the discipline with which "direct links" are created that differentiates true causal maps from "influence diagrams".

Being visual it is easier to explain certain elements of the system and how they interact (compared to text or prose); hence it is very useful as a "visual framework"  woth which to engage stakeholders.

Causal mapping is useful for understanding complex systems in social sciences, economics, and business, because by mapping cause and effect between variables, one often finds feedback loops which inhibit or accelerate growth, and which result in unanticipated 2nd/3rd order effects

In the example diagrams below, Red words represent actions or policies, Green words represent outcomes in which we are interested. Arrows represent influence, with + indicating same direction, and - indicating opposite direction

There are two basic types of feedback loops:

Examples

1. Commercial property "ecosystem"

This simple causal map shows how the portfolio value of depends not just on the amount of property development unertaken but a number of other factors some of which are outside the control of the owner and some of which is dependent on their actions..

• Property values depend on rental values
• Rental values depend on the potential revenues of a retail business in the property
• Potential revenues of a retail business depends on the footfalls past the store
• Footfalls past the store depend on…
  • transport access and infrastructure
  • reputation and perception of the location
  • seasonality

2. Terrorism/ Counter-terrorism "Cat & Mouse"

This simple causal map shows how planning and conducting terrorist & counter-terrorist actions lead to a "see-sawing" of success and failure.

In the short-term…

• The shock of an attack (eg 9/11) forces the security agencies to learn and improve their operations
• Terrorists try to emulate 9/11
• Hence, the security agencies have been able to prevent a number of attacks

In the medium-term…

• With so many operatives being arrested the terror groups will change their plans and methods
• Eventually they will overtake the security forces and succeed in a major attack

In the long-term…

• There will be a continual see-saw of advantage
• You will see a cycle of failed attacks, followed by successes, followed by failed attacks etc
• As certain types of attacks become harder to carry out, terrorists will concentrate on those that are harder to prevent